The Repository @ St. Cloud State

Open Access Knowledge and Scholarship

Date of Award


Culminating Project Type


Degree Name

Applied Economics: M.S.




School of Public Affairs

First Advisor

Nimantha Manamperi

Second Advisor

Mana Komai

Third Advisor

Berry Paratt

Creative Commons License

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 License.

Keywords and Subject Headings

Chinese economy, U.S. economy, forecasting, GDP per capita


Rapid economic growth in China has made China the world’s 2nd largest economy in term of its gross domestic product (GDP) right after the U.S. (World Bank, 2019). Will Chinese economy surpass U.S. economy is a question many wonder. Some think that there is no debate whether Chinese economy will surpass U.S.’s, the only question is when will it happen (Bloomberg 2018). This paper compares the economic growth in China and U.S. from 1982-2016 in terms of their GDP per capita (standard of living) and examines whether Chinese economy will surpass U. S’s in the next 20 years. The results indicate that independent variables such as capital, labor, saving and lagged GDP per capita have an effect on economic growth in China and variables like capital, FDI and lagged GDP per capita have an influence on economic growth in U.S. The result of this study suggests that in the next 20 years, China will not surplus U.S. in term of GDP per capita.