The St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report presents a quarterly analysis of economic and business conditions in the St. Cloud (Minnesota) region. It includes an Executive Summary, an analysis of the results of the St. Cloud Area Business Outlook Survey, the St. Cloud Index of Leading Economic Indicators, a recession probability index for the St. Cloud area (until 2018), and a discussion of local data. The St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report is produced by St. Cloud State's Center for Policy Research and Community Engagement and the Herberger Business School’s Department of Economics. Collaborating partners in the funding, design, editing, and/or publication of the report have included the St. Cloud Area Economic Development Partnership, the Greater St. Cloud Development Corporation, and Times Media. Print editions of the report have appeared in ROI Central Minnesota as a special section in the St. Cloud Times, and currently online and in print for St. Cloud Live. Authors have included several St. Cloud State Economics professors including Mark Partridge, King Banaian, Richard A. MacDonald, and Mana Komai Molle.
From 2017 the St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Review was presented to the community through a presentation by the authors. In 2020, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, these presentations were given online. The videos below are the result of those presentations. By agreement with the sponsors, online presentations ended in 2023 but continue to be offered in-person.
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St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, Vol. 25, No. 1 - Podcast
King Banaian and Mana Komai
The St. Cloud economy is still poised for recession, as predicted last December in the Quarterly Business Report. The recession has not yet started, but one fourth of firms surveyed indicate their business activity will drop through summer. Employment of persons living in the St. Cloud MSA fell 1.5% between January 2022 and January 2023. The six leading economic indicators for the St. Cloud area were evenly divided, with 3 up and 3 down. Local business leaders reported tighter credit conditions, with greater reliance on financing investments out of their own firms’ revenues.
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St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, Vol. 24, No. 2 - Podcast
King Banaian and Mana Komai
St. Cloud State University School of Public Affairs Dean King Banaian provided an in-person and virtual review of the June 2022 Quarterly Business Report at St. Cloud City Hall in St. Cloud, Minnesota. St. Cloud area unemployment reached its lowest point since measurement began in 1990, registering at 1.8% in April 2022. Area economic growth was very strong in the months leading out of the Omicron wave of the pandemic, with a majority of survey respondents reporting higher business activity in the February to April period. Over 70% reported paying higher wages and charging higher prices for their goods and services. 5 of 6 leading indicators were positive. In special questions, more than 70% of surveyed businesses did not lay off workers but of those that did a majority did not return many of them to their payrolls. Regional data showed that continuing unemployment insurance claims in 2022 were higher in both accommodation and food services and in health care and social assistance. It was lower in manufacturing and wholesale trade.
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St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, Vol. 24, No. 3 - Podcast
King Banaian and Mana Komai
Drs. King Banaian and Mana Komai Molle discussed the strong employment situation in the St. Cloud MSA, led by the construction sector. The St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Survey showed weaker business activity in the last three months, and business leaders expect less growth in the next six months. There was a sharp difference of opinion among them about whether we were in a recession or soon entering on. In response to higher input prices, a majority believe those can be passed onto consumers, but a significant number reported smaller profit margins.
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St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, Vol. 24, No. 4
King Banaian and Mana Komai
St. Cloud State University School of Public Affairs Dean King Banaian provided an in-person and virtual review of the December 2022 Quarterly Business Report at the Sartell Community Center in Sartell, Minnesota. We predict the St. Cloud metro area will be in recession within the next 4 to 6 months, based on results of the St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Survey as well as data on professional employment and the stock prices of area publicly-traded corporations. The St. Cloud Index of Leading Economic Indicators fell 5% in the latest quarter and 9.8% in the last year. Employment growth in the region has slowed dramatically during the fall, lagging gains elsewhere in Minnesota. Survey results showed lower expectations of area business leaders for their own business activity and difficulty finding qualified workers.
In special questions businesses indicated tax burdens were the most common issue for the next legislative session in St. Paul. They also reported that the Federal Reserve’s higher interest rates were having negative effects; this was causing some firms to put off investment and expansion plans and others to pay down their higher-interest rate loans.
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St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, Vol. 24, No. 1 - Podcast
King Banaian and Richard A. MacDonald
St. Cloud State University School of Public Affairs Dean King Banaian provided an in-person and virtual review of the March 2022 Quarterly Business Report at the Davidson Opera House in St. Cloud Minnesota. The report shows that as the pandemic subsides, the new year has ushered in a long awaited broad-based area economic expansion. Virtually all sectors of the area economy experienced employment growth as the area added more than 3,600 jobs over the year ending January 2022. Firms’ future outlook remains very strong, but is clouded by accelerating inflation (and accompanying wage pressures) and persistent labor shortages.
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2021 Economic Outlook Presentation
King Banaian
The Winter Institute, Department of Economics, and School of Public Affairs is excited to bring you the 2021 Economic Outlook Presentation recorded Thursday, Feb. 4 2021.
St. Cloud State University’s Winter Institute has been a leading conference on economics, business conditions and economics education for nearly six decades. Due to the pandemic, a full-scale, in-person event will not be held this year.
Moderator and Host: King Banaian, Dean of School of Public Affairs - St. Cloud State University
Guest Panelists include: Laura Kalambokidis, Minnesota’s State Economist; Louis Johnston, Professor of Economics - College of St. Benedict and Saint John's University; Luke Greiner, Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED)
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St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, Vol. 23, No. 1 - Podcast
King Banaian and Richard MacDonald
St. Cloud State University School of Public Affairs Dean King Banaian and Professor Richard MacDonald provided a virtual review of the March 2021 Quarterly Business Report in lieu of the normal in-person meeting. The report shows the area economy entered the second year of recession with employment declines in every sector with the exception of construction. The audience was polled on vaccinations, local labor force, American Recovery Plan Act, and more with results at the end.
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St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, Vol. 23, No. 2 - Podcast
King Banaian and Richard MacDonald
St. Cloud State University School of Public Affairs Dean King Banaian and Professor Richard MacDonald provided a virtual review of the June 2021 Quarterly Business Report in lieu of the normal in-person meeting. The report shows the St. Cloud economy experienced rapid growth in 3 areas most hit by the pandemic: retail sales; leisure and hospitality; and other services such as gyms, theaters, and beauty salons. The St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Survey showed that wages were risking with expectations of rising prices. Survey respondents reported on both hiring and supply side issues. Discussion of pandemic unemployment insurance assistance programs was also offered
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St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, Vol. 23, No. 4 - Podcast
King Banaian and Richard A. MacDonald
St. Cloud State University School of Public Affairs Dean King Banaian and Professor Richard MacDonald provided a virtual review of the December 2021 Quarterly Business Report. While private sector employment in the St. Cloud MSA rose 2.2% in the 12 months to October 2021, the area’s labor force fell by 1.9%. This has led to very tight labor markets according to respondents to the St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Survey with expectations of higher wages in the next 6 months. Two-thirds of survey respondents expect to be able to raise prices in the next six months, an all-time high. We review information about local and national trends in telework. Almost half of area firms surveyed have one or more workers regularly scheduled to work from home, and 22% said these arrangements will last for a year or longer.
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St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, Vol. 23, No. 3 - Podcast
King Banaian and Richard A. MacDonald
St. Cloud State University School of Public Affairs Dean King Banaian and Professor Richard MacDonald provided a virtual review of the September 2021 Quarterly Business Report in addition to the in-person meeting. The report shows that while the pandemic appears to have created scars in the local economy that plague some of our local service sectors, many area firms continue to report challenges that are typically associated with rapid expansion—labor shortages, price increases, accelerating wage growth, etc.
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St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, Vol. 22, No. 4 - Podcast
King Banaian
Slides from a presentation delivered through a virtual meeting on December 17, 2020 that reviews the December 2020 St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report. Local economic business activity between August and October was the worst in a decade, according to 38 respondents to the St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Survey. Local labor markets are tight, however, with 27% of respondents saying they foresee greater difficulty finding qualified workers. The St. Cloud Area Index of Leading Economic Indicators indicates improving conditions by the middle of 2021. In special questions, businesses indicated that they expect the state Legislature to take up COVID-19 relief as their top priority, with other economic concerns also mentioned.
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St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, Vol. 22, No. 2 - Podcast
King Banaian and Richard MacDonald
St. Cloud State University School of Public Affairs Dean King Banaian and Professor Richard MacDonald provided a virtual review of the June 2020 Quarterly Business Report in lieu of the normal in-person meeting. The report shows the area economy entered a recession in March 2020 with unprecedented speed and depth. The audience was polled on the shape and length of the recession, the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on labor markets and concerns for increases in the national debt.
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St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, Vol. 22, No. 3 - Podcast
King Banaian and Richard MacDonald
At a virtual presentation on September 17, 2020, the results of the August 2020 St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report were presented. Key takeaways included the smaller drop in employment in St. Cloud since the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic than other parts of Minnesota. St. Cloud is currently in a recession and both business leaders and authors’ statistical analysis expect the recession to end in the first half of 2021, with 42% of surveyed business leaders in the St. Cloud area believing business activity would rise in the next six months while 30% thought it would fall. More business leaders expect increased difficulty hiring qualified workers than expect easier hiring conditions, and one in three thought they would be offering higher wages over the next six months.
