Date of Award
8-2024
Culminating Project Type
Thesis
Styleguide
chicago
Degree Name
Geography - Geographic Information Science: M.S.
Department
Geography and Planning
College
School of Public Affairs
First Advisor
Dr. Mikhail Blinnikov
Second Advisor
Dr. Jeffrey Torguson
Third Advisor
Dr. Michael Bredeson
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 License.
Keywords and Subject Headings
geography, entomology, species distribution modeling, invasive species
Abstract
Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), known as the Emerald Ash Borer (EAB), has been a species of serious concern to communities around the eastern and midwestern United States since the invasive insect was first introduced in Michigan in 2002 from China. In the decades since its establishment in the country, Emerald Ash Borer has caused billions of dollars in damage to ash trees (Fraxinus spp.), as well ecological consequences in ash-dominated forest stands. This paper presents a bioclimatic perspective on the distribution of the EAB in Minnesota using maximum entropy modeling approach (Maxent). The model relates the Emerald Ash Borer species occurrence data to 10 of the 19 WorldClim bioclimatic variables to model species’ niche in both the present as well as the future (years 2050 and 2070). Results of the model indicate the current suitable habitat for the species extends far into north-central Minnesota, which is consistent with known cases of insect occurrence. A jackknife test of the variable significance indicates the minimum temperature of the coldest month, and the precipitation of the coldest quarter are the most important variables when modelling this species distribution. Transfer of the model results to some future climate scenarios indicates expansion of the habitat suitability into the rest of the state by 2050.
Recommended Citation
Ahrens-Church, Tali, "Potential Distribution of Agrilus planipennis (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) in Minnesota: A Bioclimatic Perspective Using Maxent" (2024). Culminating Projects in Geography and Planning. 23.
https://repository.stcloudstate.edu/gp_etds/23
